Leverage is reproducible. Luck is not. Founders confuse them constantly, especially after a win, and especially in their second company.

Specific knowledge, accountability, and judgment compound. Distribution, timing, and the right introduction at the right party do not — they happen once and then they're gone. The trap is mistaking the second kind for the first.

When you're building, ask: if I shipped this exact thing six months later, would the outcome change by 5x or by 5%? If the answer is 5x, you're riding luck. If the answer is 5%, you're using leverage. Both can win, but only one is repeatable.

The corollary: if you've already won once and you're starting again, the only honest question is which inputs were leverage and which were luck? Most founders skip this and assume the whole thing was leverage. Then they spend year two of company two wondering why the playbook doesn't work.

Audit the win. Separate the parts. Carry forward what you can repeat. Be grateful for the rest, but don't try to bottle it.